Food Security, Ocean, OIF
By CRA Admin

By: CRA Admin

Introduction: Connecting Ocean Productivity to Protein Affordability

In our previous discussion on climate restoration and hunger, we explored how Ocean Iron Fertilization (OIF) could significantly boost global fish populations. This article delves into the potential economic ripple effects of large-scale OIF deployment—specifically, how increasing fish biomass might influence global protein prices.

If OIF is deployed at full scale—removing 60 gigatons (Gt) of CO₂ per year—the increase in ocean productivity could shift global protein supply, improve affordability, and enhance food security. Here’s how.

1. The Link Between Fish Supply and Protein Prices

Fish serves as a crucial source of high-quality protein worldwide, particularly in developing nations. Key statistics include:

  • Global Fish Production: Approximately 179 million tons annually, encompassing both wild-caught and aquaculture sources¹

  • Protein Contribution: Fish accounts for about 17% of global animal protein intake, with figures exceeding 50% in certain coastal and island regions²

  • Rising Demand: Global protein demand is projected to double by 2050³

An increase in fish supply could alleviate pressure on other protein sources, potentially leading to more stable and affordable protein prices globally.

2. Projected Supply Increase from Full-Scale OIF

Implementing OIF at a scale capable of removing 60 gigatons of CO₂ per year could yield substantial increases in marine biomass. Based on established ecological models:

  • Phytoplankton Growth: Removing 60 Gt of CO₂ could generate approximately 120 Gt of phytoplankton biomass, given the 2:1 conversion ratio⁴

  • Trophic Transfers: Through successive 10% energy transfer efficiencies⁵:

    • 10% of phytoplankton becomes zooplankton = ~12 Gt zooplankton

    • 10% of zooplankton becomes small fish = ~1.2 Gt small fish

    • 10% of small fish becomes large fish = ~0.12 Gt large fish (120 million tons)

This represents a 67% increase over current global fish production levels¹

Even if only half is harvested sustainably, that’s still a 33% increase in edible fish—an unprecedented boost in affordable, nutritious protein.

3. Potential Impact on Protein Prices

Fish prices fall as supply grows:

  • The price elasticity of demand for fish is approximately -0.5, meaning a 1% increase in supply may lead to a 0.5% decrease in price⁶

  • A 33–67% increase in fish supply could potentially result in a 15–30% global drop in fish prices, assuming other market factors remain constant

Cross-market protein effects:

  • Cheaper fish could displace demand for more expensive proteins like beef and poultry

  • The result: broader affordability of protein, especially in regions with limited dietary options

4. Broader Implications

  • Improved food security in developing regions

  • Reduced pressure on terrestrial livestock systems

  • Healthier diets supported by access to lean, ocean-based protein

Conclusion: The Economic Promise of OIF

If Ocean Iron Fertilization reaches full scale (60 Gt CO₂/year), the resulting boost in fish biomass could lower fish prices by 15–30%, while relieving pressure on other protein sources.

Restoring the climate could also make protein more accessible—and affordable—for billions.

Call to Action: Support the Southern California MRV Project

To realize the potential benefits of OIF, it’s essential to advance our understanding and monitoring capabilities. The Southern California MRV (Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification) Project aims to enhance the tools necessary for effective OIF implementation. Your support can drive this critical research forward.

👉 Contribute today and be part of the movement toward a sustainable, food-secure future.

Sources

  1. FAO (2022). The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture. https://www.fao.org

  2. FAO (2020). The Role of Aquatic Foods in Sustainable Healthy Diets

  3. World Economic Forum (2019). Meat: The Future Series – Alternative Proteins.

  4. Martin, J.H., Gordon, R.M., & Fitzwater, S.E. (1991). Iron deficiency limits phytoplankton growth in the north-east Pacific subarctic. Nature, 350, 227–229.

  5. Pauly, D., & Christensen, V. (1995). Primary production required to sustain global fisheries. Nature, 374, 255–257.

  6. Asche, F., Bellemare, M.F., Roheim, C., Smith, M.D., & Tveteras, S. (2015). Fair Enough? Food Security and the International Trade of Seafood. World Development, 67, 151–160.