General Questions
We all want to give our children a safe climate like the one we were given.
Climate restoration means restoring a climate that’s proven safe for humans over the long term— and doing it by 2050 while our ecosystems, climate systems, as well as social and political systems are sufficiently intact.
For a safe climate, we need safe CO2 levels. To restore safe CO2 levels we need to remove a trillion tons of CO2 from the atmosphere.
The climate we enjoyed for thousands of years—from the end of the last Ice Age until about 100 years ago—was stable and safe. Called the “pre-industrial climate” it allowed us to thrive and develop agriculture and civilizations.
In technical terms, pre-industrial CO2 levels were about 275 parts per million (ppm). That means that out of a million molecules of air, 275 are CO2.
The highest CO2 level humans have endured long term is 300 parts per million (ppm).
Atmospheric CO2 levels have reached 425 ppm—more than 50% higher than they were before industry.
The last time Earth saw similar CO2 levels—between 14 and 16 million years ago—hominids hadn’t even evolved from gorillas.
Translating parts per million of CO2 into quantity: Over the last couple of centuries, we’ve burned so much fossil fuel that there’s a trillion tons of excess or “legacy” CO2 already in the air. That’s what’s causing most of the climate chaos.
In the historic Paris Accords of 2015, the world agreed to reach “net-zero emissions” by 2050.
Net zero involves 1) transitioning to clean energy—mostly solar, wind, and batteries—as fast as we can and then 2) balancing out ongoing fossil-fuel emissions by removing an equal amount of atmospheric CO2 (hence the “net” in net zero).
Net-zero then means not pumping any more greenhouse gas pollution into the atmosphere. Transitioning to clean energy is good for the atmosphere as well as environmental and human health. The net-zero goal challenges us to move to clean, renewable energy with all haste.
However, reaching net-zero is not the same as restoring a safe climate and will not fix our climate.
Most people assume that achieving net-zero emissions will end the climate crisis. But it won’t.
Net-zero means stabilizing CO2 levels where they are. While stabilizing CO2 was appropriate in the 1980’s before climate change was visible, it’s no longer enough.
Now even if we magically achieved net-zero tomorrow, we would still have all the CO2 pumped into the atmosphere over the last 200 years. There’s a trillion tons of this “legacy” CO2. It’s the main engine behind climate chaos.
If we stabilized greenhouse gasses today without removing the legacy CO2, we are likely to see our climate and ecosystems continue to collapse before our eyes. This might be the end of life as we’ve known it.
To restore a safe climate, we need to move to clean energy AND to remove the trillion tons of legacy CO2 we’ve dumped into the atmosphere over the last two centuries.
Humans haven’t pulled a trillion tons of CO2 out of the air before—but Nature has. Many times in the lead-up to ice ages. So we know it can be done. Nature also removes gigatons of CO2 quickly after volcanic eruptions.
About 30 years ago, scientists figured out how to replicate and accelerate these and other natural processes. Climate restoration solutions have been perfected and time-tested by nature; replicating them is proving to be low-tech and remarkably low cost.
By boosting photosynthesis in the ocean which covers most of our planet. Leading up to an ice age, Nature increases dust storms which blow iron dust from drylands out to sea. (Iron is necessary for all life but unlike other nutrients it doesn’t dissolve and linger at the surface—it sinks.)
Adding trace amounts of iron can prompt immediate healthy blooms of phytoplankton, the tiny green plants and algae that make up the base of the marine food web.
Phytoplankton absorb huge amounts of CO2 through photosynthesis. When the phytoplankton (and whatever eats it) dies, it drops to the depths. There, the biocarbon can’t rot or burn, unlike with plants on land.
We call this natural process “ocean iron fertilization” or OIF. It’s like giving an iron supplement to anemic parts of the ocean.
By following Nature’s lead. Today, about a dozen pilot projects are being developed worldwide to replicate and accelerate OIF (through a process called “biomimicry.”) Here is ours.
From the science of ice ages and also of volcanoes which remove CO2 very rapidly, we project that intentional OIF could scale up to 60 billion tons of CO2 a year. At that rate, we could restore safe CO2 levels by 2050.
Scientists and engineers are also emulating how Nature removes methane from the air. Less concentrated than CO2 and shorter lived in the atmosphere, methane is about 80 times more powerful than CO2. Through biomimicry, we plan to double the rate of natural methane oxidation, which will cut methane concentrations in half, restoring pre-industrial levels rapidly.
By following Nature’s lead. Today, about a dozen pilot projects are being developed worldwide to replicate and accelerate OIF (through a process called “biomimicry.”)
From the science of ice ages and also of volcanoes which remove CO2 very rapidly, we project that intentional OIF could scale up to 60 billion tons of CO2 a year. At that rate, we could restore safe CO2 levels by 2050.
You may have heard a lot about regenerative agriculture, agroforestry, or biochar. “Nature-based climate solutions” also include tree-planting, holistic grazing, “blue carbon,” growing bamboo, and restoration of all sorts of ecosystems (“eco-restoration”).
Land-based approaches are good for soil, wildlife, and human health. Some can make money in the offset market, particularly in countries in the South. Although they not scalable enough to restore the climate on their own in the short timeframe we have, they are just as crucial if we want our grandchildren to thrive.
These efforts are tremendously important for life on Earth. They can contribute to restoring a safe climate. But they cannot substitute for highly scalable ocean-based restoration.
While supported by the Climate Restoration Alliance, these solutions are a second priority.
No. Direct Air Capture (DAC) and other forms of industrial CDR are simply too expensive to scale and thus cannot reduce CO2 levels—only offset some new emissions. Given decades, perhaps they could. But the situation is urgent.
High-tech CO2 removal is getting billions of dollars in funding now. But it costs about $600-$1,000 to remove one ton of CO2.
That’s 10,000 times more expensive than replicating natural processes – we expect the removal cost to be $1 per ton!
In the 1980s, when the world started to be concerned about global warming and the UNFCCC and IPCC were being developed, CO2 levels were still safe for humanity. Climate change was not yet perceptible. It wouldn’t have made sense to call for restoring a safe climate…because it was safe.
In that context, the UN and the world agreed to “stabilize” greenhouse gasses (GHG) in 1992. Stabilizing means reducing emissions by moving to renewable energy and increasing energy efficiency. (The term became “net-zero emissions” in the Paris Accords of 2015.)
From the beginning of climate discussions, reducing emissions became the rallying cry of climate activists everywhere, and it has remained the main goal. Few climate leaders yet address the urgent need to expand the goal, to restore a safe climate.
Climate restoration is a new paradigm. Most climate action aims to “avoid the worst effects” of climate change through reducing emissions. In contrast, climate restorers aim to achieve the best possible outcome—a safe climate for our children and future generations—by using clean energy AND restoring safe CO2 levels.
The biggest challenge right now is that we have no national or global agreement that puts us on the path to restoring the climate for future generations.
Most climate authorities aren’t even discussing a safe climate. Most people don’t even realize it’s a possibility.
The Climate Restoration Alliance is working to change that!
Our growing community of Climate Restorers has taken on the challenge of ensuring a safe climate by pulling down the trillion tons of legacy CO2 that’s been added to the atmosphere over the past 150 years.
Even if we stopped burning all fossil fuels today, the levels of CO2 in the air will continue to result in higher temperatures, higher sea levels, more severe weather, and food insecurity.
The climate crisis needs reversing, urgently. We have Methane Oxidation and Ocean Iron Fertilization pilot projects in development that will demonstrate the safety, efficiency and scalability of these solutions to restore a safe climate with CO2 below 300 PPM by 2050.
Ocean Iron Fertilization (OIF) Questions
All forms of life require iron, but this element often becomes scarce in the upper ocean as it tends to sink rapidly. “Ocean iron fertilization” refers to the natural processes that replenish iron in the ocean, such as volcanic eruptions and desert dust storms; the term also refers to intentional restoration of iron in strategic areas.
Where iron is particularly scarce, OIF can boost the growth of healthy phytoplankton—the tiny green plants and algae that form the base of the marine food web. Phytoplankton restore fish populations and also pull down significant amounts of CO2 through photosynthesis. As the plankton and the animals that eat it die, they sink, taking along their “biocarbon” (carbon stored in organisms). The biocarbon that drifts down more than a kilometer then remains locked away for a thousand years.
Natural OIF is performed by:
- Dust storms in the Sahara and other deserts that blow iron-rich dust out to sea
- Volcanic eruptions, including from underwater volcanoes
- Melting icebergs and glaciers
- Upwelling of deep ocean water
- Whales: Baleen whales eat krill and other creatures that contain a lot of iron, then poop at the surface. Before they were largely exterminated, whales alone would have provided a tremendous amount of “iron fertilizer” to the upper ocean.
Intentional iron fertilization is “biomimicry”– careful replication of natural processes. Intentional OIF is the most powerful climate-restoration solution we know.
Yes, for many thousands of years. In fact, natural OIF is largely responsible for the CO2 and temperature drops that bring on ice ages. The National Academy of Science called this discovery one of the greatest of the 20th century.
Ice ages take thousands of years to develop, but OIF can also occur very rapidly, such as after volcanic eruptions. In 1992, 20 billion tons of CO2 left the atmosphere—enough to give us net-zero for a year! The only explanation that can account for this speed and scale of carbon-dioxide removal (CDR) is OIF performed by the 1991 Mt Pinatubo volcanic eruption, which sent iron-laden ash into the ocean.
Intentional OIF has been conducted over a dozen times, around the world. When well-targeted, the results were as predicted: phytoplankton photosynthesized and grew, and the detritus and dead organisms sank.
It’s natural to have concerns about adding anything to the ocean. However, Nature has been performing OIF for millions of years, so marine life evolved to flourish with the process.
Much research shows that the oceans contain less iron now than in previous eras, as less iron-laden dust is blowing off the deserts, and whales, which used to recycle iron from deep in the ocean to the surface, are mostly gone.
Intentional OIF can restore marine ecosystems while lowering CO2 levels, which also neutralizes some of the ocean’s increased acidity.
The quantities involved in intentional OIF are vanishingly small— iron dust equal to about a grain of salt per square meter.
There is a lot of confusion about OIF. For instance, some claim that it could produce harmful algae blooms or red tides. Not true: these only occur where there are too many nutrients in the water, particularly in coastal areas that receive fertilizer, manure and other nutrient-rich runoff from farms and towns. By definition, OIF would be performed in the deep ocean, where the nutrients are lacking.
In fact, of the 13 OIF expeditions already performed, not one observed any harmful side effects. This should not be surprising, since OIF is a continuous, naturally occurring process.
The only side effects seen from intentional OIF were positive: a dramatic resurgence of fish, whales, seabirds, and other marine life.
As with any responsible intervention, monitoring is an important function of OIF implementation.
OIF projects will adhere to environmental assessment standards, and will be monitored by 3rd parties using advanced methods such as surface MRV (buoys and drone-ships below and above the ocean surface) and Satellite MRV (analysis of images from satellites).
Based on previous trials, we do not expect any negative outcomes. However, if a problem arises, iron distribution will be stopped immediately. Since iron sinks, the affected area would return to its pre-OIF status within weeks.
The London Convention / London Protocol (LC/LP) on Ocean Dumping: What the Climate Restoration Community Needs to Know
Some organizations and journalists claim that the London Convention / London Protocol (LC/LP) has deemed ocean iron fertilization illegal.
This is a misconception: They have not.
Then what are the legal requirements relating to implementing OIF? And how do implementers plan to move forward?
International Law
According to the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law of the Columbia Law School, “There are currently no legally binding international treaties dealing specifically with ocean fertilization.” This echoes the conclusion of the 2022 National Academies report on ocean CDR.
It is true that between 2007 and 2013, the , the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea took initial steps to develop rules for OIF. Yet none of these have been finalized or ratified. In addition, they are generally considered confusing and contradictory.
National Law
Environmental laws do cover activities within territorial waters (up to 12 miles from shore) and national exclusive economic zones (up to 200 miles). A national EPA or state agency generally requires a permit in these areas. It’s important to note that OIF would not typically be performed in coastal waters: run-off from the land provides more than enough iron for marine vegetation.
Moving forward
The reality notwithstanding, people often repeat the misconception that the LP/LC outlaws OIF—especially nonlawyers in the scientific community. Since most listeners hesitate to question scientists, the misconception continues…. By now, repetition of this belief has given it status close to “defacto law.”
Therefore, to avoid controversy, it will be prudent to solicit permission even where none is required. For instance, once our OIF project is solidified and funded, we will ask the Philippine Coast Guard to request a permit from the LC/LP. After that, we plan to request similar permission from the two other relevant UN agencies. No doubt their officers will have useful questions and request clarifications that will improve the quality of the project.
Finally, we will meet with various organizations that claim or imply that OIF is forbidden by the LC/LP, to educate them and get their buy-in.